A dead-heat poll serves up the bitter and the sweet in near-equal doses.

The good news for Republican Sam Katz: "The No. 1 good news is that he's competitive in a city where his party faces a [nearly] 4-1 registration deficit," said pollster Terry Madonna.

Katz benefits from "an enormous crossover of [Democratic] white voters. That makes him a viable candidate," Madonna said.

That's reflected in the GOP candidate's break-even showing in union households (36-37) and his lead among Catholic voters (57-22), two Democratic bastions.

Katz leads by 16 percent among Philadelphians over 54, and older voters are the most likely to show up at the polls.

Katz is ahead among those who say they are independent (37-24) and moderate (44-35), "two categories that can often decide elections," said Madonna.

The good news for Democrat John Street:

His approval rating is up. In the Oct. 4-7 Keystone Poll, Street had a seven-point favorable rating, 34-27; now it's plus-12 (41-29). Madonna said a late gain is unusual when a candidate is the target of negative ads, as Street has been.

Street's holding 14 percent of the white vote, with 18 percent undecided. Many pundits say Street is home free if he polls 20 percent of the white vote, and he's within striking distance.

The largest pools of undecided voters are African-American (47 percent) and female (64 percent), categories that normally favor Democrats. Madonna said undecideds often end up voting like those with the same demographic characteristics - so these groups could break for Street.

One-third of all voters say they vote straight Democrat, a big-lever trend that aids Street.

The bad news for Katz:

His unfavorables have doubled since the earlier poll, from 12 to 23 percent, which Madonna attributes to Street's critical ads. Katz still has a favorable approval rating (39-23) "but the trend is not where you want to take it," Madonna said.

Many voters consider him less experienced than Street. The former City Council president logs 21 percent of his support from those who say he has the most experience and best record. Katz, who has never held elected office, gets 5 percent support on his experience and record.

The bad news for Street:

He's losing the personality contest. For those who say personal characteristics are critical, 16 percent say that's why they're supporting Street, but 11 percent say that's why they oppose him. For Katz, 22 percent favor him for "positive personal characteristics," only 3 percent say that's why they oppose him.

Street hasn't sewed up his core constituency. While up to 97 percent of black voters favored W. Wilson Goode in his mayoral races, Street claims only 64 percent of black votes in the Keystone Poll, with 24 percent undecided and 12 percent for Katz.

---

© 1999, Philadelphia Newspapers Inc. All rights reserved. Any copying, redistribution, or retransmission of any of the contents of this service without the express written consent of Philadelphia Newspapers Inc. is expressly prohibited.