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e-ThePeople

Undecideds are the key

And most of those are women


by William Bunch
Daily News Staff Writer

 Six days before the mayoral election, Philadelphians remain evenly divided over who their next mayor should be.

But one thing is certain: Many more women than men will decide the issue.

A new Daily News/Fox Philadelphia Keystone Poll of 606 likely voters shows that Democrat John Street and Republican Sam Katz are nearly dead even: Street at 39 percent, Katz at 38 percent, with a surprising 23 percent saying they are undecided.

Most of the undecided, just like the overwhelming majority of voters who will cast ballots on Tuesday, are women.

While the gender gap and soccer moms have made a big impact on the national political scene, the growing female electorate in Philadelphia hasn't gotten a lot of publicity.

But women have been deciding elections here for years. In 1991, the year of the last non-incumbent mayoral election, 57 percent of the voters who cast ballots were women.

In 1998, the number, among voters who stated their gender, was even higher, at 58 percent, according to statistics compiled by the city commissioners.

And, the lower the turnout - and turnout is expected to be low for a mayoral election - the higher the percentage of women voters, suggesting that an even greater number of voters on Tuesday will be women.

"Women make up a greater percentage of high-propensity voters than men," said veteran political operative Howard Cain. "The gap between men and women begins to widen as you narrow it down from overall population to registered voters to high-propensity voters, where you wind up with something like a 60-40 difference."

And that is why candidates no longer have "women's committees," as Bill Green did in 1979, to research women's issues.

Those issues - education, safety, child care, equality in the workplace - are now mainstream and candidates discuss them at every campaign stop, regardless of gender.

So, as the two men vying to become Philadelphia's first mayor of the 21st century thunder down the stretch the undecided voters, most of them women, will be targeted in a $2 million last-minute ad blitz, by President Clinton - Mr. Gender Gap winner himself - on Friday, and by teams of volunteers on Election Day.

Beyond the gender factor, most of the undecideds in the Keystone Poll, which was conducted Friday through Sunday by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University, are African-American.

"That's a little surprising given Street's high visibility on the political scene," said poll director Terry Madonna. "I think it reflects the division in the black community because of the high-profile endorsement of Katz by John F. White Jr. Beyond that, there seems to be no passion for John Street in the African-American community."

Some people watching the election from ground level attribute the lack of passion to the two issues-oriented candidates who don't disagree substantially on many issues.

"I think this election hasn't been about issues and there hasn't been the kind of passion that you saw in the Frank Rizzo and Wilson Goode - in large part because it's a beauty contest, almost like a student council election," said Alan Butkovitz, a state representative and Democratic ward leader from Northeast Philadelphia.

The demographics of the undecided vote - women, blacks, Democrats, and union members - is already molding campaign strategy in the final days of the race, especially for the Street campaign.

Street has enlisted Clinton - enormously popular with black voters - for major support, including a recorded message for thousands of automated phone calls.

On Friday, he will seek to rally the troops in person at a pep rally at La Salle University.

Meanwhile, the Democrat has also played up his rowhouse roots - he has lived in a North Philadelphia townhouse for a number of years - and has clearly targeted middle-class Democrats and union members, some of whom are taking a holiday on Tuesday to work for Street.

Katz is also targeting Democrats with a TV ad that features a number of testimonials from voters - many in the undecided categories of women, blacks, or union members.

The ad concludes with Katz supporter White, who ran well with those groups in the Democratic primary.

More than half of the undecideds usually vote all or mostly Democratic, the poll found.

The margin of error for the overall sample is 4 percent.

"This election could hinge on so many little things, that's what's fascinating," Madonna said.

Political experts said there was something for both candidates in the survey.

For Street, the best news was that after a million-dollar TV ad blitz that sought to portray Katz's plans for cutting the wage tax and school vouchers as extreme and which questioned the GOP candidate's business dealings, many voters now have a more negative view of Katz.

The survey found that voters having an unfavorable opinion of Katz has been steadily rising, from 9 percent in January to 12 percent in early October to 23 percent today.

And while those having a favorable opinion of Katz in the last three weeks has held steady at 39 percent, Street's positive numbers have bounced up from 34 percent to 41 percent.

Political experts say that that kind of trend often translates into votes, and Street's campaign aides agreed.

"The question about how many undecideds there are is less important than who they are and what they're feelings are, and judging from the way that Katz' negatives are going up and Street's positives are going up that indicates that they will break Street's way," said Ken Snyder, Street's campaign press secretary.

Katz's aides, not surprisingly, didn't see it that way.

"It continues to be a close race, and that's terrific news for the Katz campaign," said Bob Barnett, Katz' campaign director.

He noted that there was conflicting information about how many voters are really undecided and who they are - a Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce poll last week had about half the number of undecideds and said more were older white upscale Democrats - so Katz will not target any one group.

Then there's the issue of unions.

Democrats have made a special effort to target these households in the race's waning days.

But the poll shows that the race is a dead heat in labor households - 37 to 36 percent Street, with some 27 percent still undecided.

"I can't imagine that being accurate," said U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, the city Democratic leader who is spearheading Street's effort to win over organized labor.

He said Street is getting overwhelming support in the form of phone banks and volunteers for Street.

Pollster Madonna said he believes that it's possible that some white Democrats - especially some who spoke to black polltakers - may have been reluctant to say that they're planning to cross party lines and support Katz.

Such a hidden Katz vote could mean that he is running several points stronger than the poll showed, although the exact number is hard to gauge.

A hidden vote for the white candidate in a bi-racial election is not uncommon.

There was also some controversy privately among experts about the racial breakdown of the survey.

The Keystone Poll breakdown was 46 percent white and 44 percent black. Some experts have said that voters in Philadelphia tend to be closer to 55 to 60 percent white.

Asked about the latest poll and the 23 percent undecided, Street said, "I think that what you are going to find is that some people are going to make up their minds at the last minute or they are just not going to tell anyone because it's a private decision. In the end what you will have is a great Democratic victory."

Thaddeus Mathis, professor of social administration at Temple University, said that the Daily News poll results showed that both candidates have solidified their bases.

"The fight is now for the undecideds and that will be resolved on election day.

It will boil down to which campaign can get out its maximum base and excite more undecided voters to move toward its candidate," he said.

He said the Democrats will continue to focus on party loyalty as the upcoming visit of President Clinton will showcase.

As for Katz, Mathis said he will not try to energize his Republican base as much as he might like for fear of upsetting Democrats.

Staff writers Gar Joseph and Mark McDonald contributed to this report.


Send e-mail to bunchw@phillynews.com




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